Back to the Future

Becky Pastner is currently a senior at Haverford College. Although she doesn't plan on speaking at graduation in May, she's indulged herself in daydreaming for just a moment.

Fellow graduates of the class of 2000: Although I can't recall the precise moment, I remember being extremely excited to learn that I was going to graduate college in the year 2000. It's a speechmaker's dream, this graduating class: possibilities for trite analogies and flowery symbolism are at my fingertips. But what I'm interested in talking about today is the reality of the year 2000, and even more importantly, what the next millennium has in store for us.

I hate to burst anyone's bubble, but 2000 is just another year. Yes, there will be an inordinate amount of debauchery in Times Square, and a few computers (among other things) might explode, but 2000 is just another year. Another year based on an arbitrary approximation of Jesus Christ's birth and death. I read somewhere that according to the actual dates of his life, we should currently be in the year 1976. See, it's arbitrary. It's not the end of the world, nor is it the beginning of a new dawn. History progresses, it doesn't just start over with no regard to what came before it. We are a product of our history, just as the next millennium will be a product of the one that preceded it.

I have lived less than a quarter of the 20th century, but I think I've figured out some stuff about it. And now that I think about it, I think I've figured some stuff out about the 21st century too. I propose that the major phenomena that have shaped the course of the 20th century in the US and abroad are communism, war, economic ruin, and civil rights. These are not distinct categories, nor did they have the same effects across the globe. What I am trying to point out is the importance of these phenomena, particularly to the US. They irreparably shaped the world in which we live, and they endure in the American subconscious. The Cold War, World Wars I and II, Korea, Vietnam, the Depression, the Black civil rights movement, and the feminist movement were 20th century events. But here's the clincher: the 21st century is just waiting around the corner to jump out and surprise us with the same old things.

Let's begin: First, communism. Although democracy has infiltrated nearly every corner of the globe (we're speaking only procedurally of course), Cuba and China are constant reminders of our Cold War past. Navigating US policy toward Cuba has been a continual headache for Washington, and Fidel is more than ready to celebrate the New Year with the rest of us. Now, more than ever, there is a need to shed the animosity of our past and move toward normalization with Cuba. Historical precedent shows that Castro was most cooperative with US policy when it was made under diplomatic, not threatening, circumstances. China is a much different case. Undergoing rapid economic liberalization, China is reaping the benefits of a free market and international investment. However, political opening has not accompanied this trend, putting the US in a very uncomfortable position vis-à-vis economic relations. Compromising many of its political ideals by overlooking human rights violations, the US has embraced China economically. The Socialist emphasis on social and economic rights overwhelms political and civil rights in both Cuba and China. This ideological gap will not go away in the next century and promises to haunt future US-Cuba and US-China relations.

Secondly, war. Where the 20th century saw international warfare across Europe and Asia, the 21st century promises to hold much more internal warfare. Civil wars already greatly outnumber interstate conflicts, as third world states, particularly in Africa, struggle to find their place in our pre-manufactured sovereign state system. Humanitarian crises will inevitably result from these conflicts, refugee crises in particular will reach far outside each strife-ridden country's borders. These may even catch the attention of the US media, and on a good day, that of US politicians. US foreign policy, particularly during the Clinton administration, has been a series of zigzags, darting from isolationism one minute to interventionism the next. The US response, or lack thereof, to the Rwandan holocaust is a dismal testament to US hesitation in the face of crisis. Although I believe that there is a higher morality which should direct US humanitarian intervention, I strongly doubt this will guide our lawmakers.

Thirdly, economics. Growing inequality will perpetuate a virtual depression for the poorest of the world. Inequality continues as a result of neo-liberal reforms which try to integrate as many countries as possible into the international, free-market system. Increasingly, third world states are at the mercy of international loans in order to survive, although the price they pay is severe. IMF and World Bank structural adjustment programs cut vital social welfare programs, exacerbating inequality in every sense of the word. Due to the affluence of political and economic elites in these countries, it is becoming easier and easier for the privileged to turn a blind eye to the poorest sectors of our world.

Lastly, civil rights. Although the fight to end racism and sexism is far from over, I would like to consider the fight for gay rights as the last leg of the civil rights movement for de jure equality. In my home state of Vermont, the Supreme Court is currently deliberating on the constitutionality of gay marriage. If the spirit of Vermont progressive politics prevails, then any day now, gay marriage will be legal. The implications of this could be tremendous and far-reaching, possibly challenging social and religious norms which have dictated discriminatory policy for too long.

You may call me pessimistic, but I'm not. I just think we need to prepare ourselves for what's ahead, without losing sight of what we've learned from the past. Fellow graduates, take the knowledge you have gained in the past four years, and get ready to challenge yourself to an uphill battle which takes the courage and devotion I know lies deep in each of you. So cheers to the new millennium: it's going to be a familiar ride.