Monday, December 21, 1998

Five weeks into my Middle East sabbatical it happened: the inevitable convergence and implosion of the always expected unexpected. A week ago I came across the bridge from Jordan to watch Chairman Arafat and President Clinton on television. From almost any ideological perspective, it was a remarkable event.

Two evenings later the United States attacked Iraq. About the same time, it became clear that the Netanyahu government was in its death throes, with little more to decide save when the new elections would take place and whether the Wye process would be frozen during the interim.

These are the first installment of promised notes during this three-month sabbatical. I emphasize rough notes, not conclusions, or even profound analysis. Over the last few weeks I have been in Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Israel speaking with many old friends and several new colleagues.

Let me work into this week gradually, partly because what happens in the Middle East increasingly ought to be understood in its regional dimensions and partly because I am not entirely certain where my thoughts are leading:

The modernization--and impoverishment--of the Middle East

At first blush and no doubt to the relief of many Westerners, the Middle East is becoming more "modern"--more like us. "Glitzy" shops are more numerous and more gaudy. Good phones are to be found in the hotels while on the streets you can purchase phone cards acceptable to the competing private phone systems near most of the new shops. Even in the ancient Damascene Soukh al-Hammadiyeh, hole-in-the wall family shops are being transformed into tile-floored, neon-lined enclaves. There is a modestly growing middle class.

All this has led to a bevy of region-wide problems: increasingly heavy traffic with the resultant pollution, helter-skelter building with disturbing environmental implications, roads that displace the poor and run roughshod over areas of historic significance. The entire region has had almost no rain for a year. The Hula swamps which Israel once proudly drained to "conquer the land," are now being re-watered as the land returns to conquer our thoughtless exuberance.

At the same time the poor are getting poorer. Unemployment rates in the Arab states I visited are between 20% and 35%. In Syria, many were selling furniture to garner enough money to celebrate the holy month of Ramadan, which began at sundown last Saturday. The "peace process" and "normalization" have had no discernable impact for most people; to the contrary, their economic slide continues.

Progress towards a more civil society

The day I arrived in Cairo, the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR) was being attacked for "receiving foreign funds." I had already been scheduled to meet with the Director of the Foreign Ministry's Human Rights Desk, but the meeting was called off. The next day I found out why: the government had arrested the head of the EOHR (after international protest, he was released). In Jordan the newly enacted press laws have been sharply criticized.

It is clear that serious problems remain in and beyond just human rights issues. Nonetheless, freedoms have been strengthened over the last few years: human rights groups are more numerous, more active and have broader support. The press has a greater degree of latitude. And several institutes have become active participants in the process of building a "more civil society." Among the most active are the Ibn Khaldun Center in Cairo and the New Jordan Research Institute in Amman that are asking questions that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.

Making dialogue work

The "Copenhagen Group" is the most prominent effort to sustain Israeli-Arab dialogue. Organized in 1997 under Egyptian and Israeli auspices, it is a group of journalists and intellectuals who have sought to unify those who have a shared vision of peace. They meet every four months in a different nation. But they have come under fierce attack throughout the Arab world, primarily by those who feel the Israeli government is so resistant to peace that, until the policies dramatically change, there should be no efforts toward normalization.

I spent a day at the Tantour Institute listening to a dialogue amongst Palestinians and Israelis. It reminded me of dialogues we have had ten and twenty years ago. We need to work harder to understand how to hear and communicate with each other. One such effort is the Committee Against House Demolition. They meet with a group of Israeli and Palestinian peace groups on a regular basis. It is action that binds them together and helps bring home that words are not just casual expressions.

Religious tolerance

Always an extremely sensitive arena, it was encouraging to experience the ease with which Muslims and Christians continue to mix, good friends talking, one in hijab (the Muslim headdress) the other in tight jeans. Christmas trees and stores with ornaments were in all of the Arab states I visited (Syria, Jordan, and Egypt are all basically secular governments). In Jordan, huge inflatable Santa Claus dolls were in front of homes. In Syria, I sat down at the coffee shop in front of the National Museum and found myself gazing at a small, decorated Christmas tree.

To my surprise, one of my favorite Jewish families has remained in Damscus. But there is great antipathy towards Israel in the Arab world. While its basis is political and focused on Netanyahu, it has clearly spilled over into anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic attitudes. This is evident in statements, cartoons, books, and discussions.

In Israel, efforts to "judaize" Jerusalem and other strategic areas continue. Across the street from the Hyatt Hotel on French Hill I saw Arab housing which was under pressure to sell to Hebrew University for its expansion. Jerusalem is actually being "orthodoxized": not just Arabs but all non-orthodox are inexorably being encouraged to leave. I am constantly reminded of the powerful psychological wall between West and East Jerusalem. Jewish drivers are often unwilling to make the trip. UPS, among others, will not deliver to Arab East Jerusalem; they subcontract out, delaying packages by another day.

A couple of observations

The leaders in the Middle East are aging. Next year could see King Hussein, Hafez Al-Asad and others leave the scene. Israel may have a new PM. And there is a new generation tired of the old battles, passions for revenge, and incessant bickering.

The problems of the nations of the region are mostly shared: religious and secular, modernization, poverty, the environment, water. None are seriously approachable without peace and justice. The sooner the region can cope with its problems in collaboration with each other, the sooner the younger generation has a chance to improve their lot.

The Clinton-Arafat Palestinian State Shell Game

All of this information bears on what has happened during the last week. Clinton's speech was easily the strongest statement an American President has ever made acknowledging Palestinian suffering and rights. Clinton went on to seemingly equate the plight of Palestinians with that of Israelis, heresy to the thinking of many Israelis. It was not lost on the Arab world that not-yet-Palestine was the only stop the President made in the Arab world. The sum total of this symbolism was an indelible affirmation of Palestinian national aspirations. Most Israelis read the Clinton visit as support for a Palestinian state.

Careful reading of the speech revealed the cleverness of the double messages within it. Clinton endorsed the right of Palestinians to aspire towards a state of their own. This is a restatement of conventional US policy. While Clinton addressed the problems, he did not go on to say what political measures might be taken to create a difference; e.g., a freeze on the settlement and the roads construction. Hopes were raised to the brink in a dramatic way that would be significant if these words were followed up in some way. In fact, the Wye process ground to a halt when the further Israeli withdrawal required on Friday did not materialize.

The message of the bombing of Iraq

The military action against Saddam Hussein was the other face of American policy. Coming so closely on the heels of Clinton's gracious speech to the Palestinian Council, it could only be heard throughout the region as a glaring contradiction, an unusually revealing insight into what really are the thoughts of the United States in the region. Immediately following the speeches a poster was produced showing Arafat and Clinton with the statement "we have a dream" (for a Palestinian State). My friend put it up in her office. The morning after the bombing she was asked to take it down. Palestinians in East Jerusalem felt "had," betrayed.

Arafat and the Crown Prince in Jordan were each obliged to give faint support to the American strike but it is clear that their populace disagrees and they have had to expend scarce political capital to give a nod to the US, Now, days after the bombing, people are still scratching their heads and asking about the bombing, "Why? Whose lives were being saved?" Clinton's speech has not been forgotten; nonetheless, its practical implications have been all but washed away by the Tomahawks.

Israeli politics and the Israeli government

As I am writing this, there is another only-as-Israelis-can-do debate on the new elections: their timing and the parties that will participate. This particular hour there are three possible centerist parties weighing their prospects. In all likelihood the final result will be some permutation that has entirely eluded the pundits--which is to say virtually every Israeli, eligible to vote or not. What is notable at this point is that none of them are discussing their policy differences (if any) on the peace process. Wye, a very small step at best, appears frozen and once again Palestinians are left to feel that their future is a function of Israeli desires, moods, and whims. This is not an encouraging note to follow Clinton's speech, the bombing of an Arab nation, or commitments to move the region from threat and terror towards peace-making.