October 2002
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Views expressed are those of the authors, not necessarily of the AFSC.
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The Word from Jane's
on Iraq's Weaponry
On Sept 19, Terry Gross on the National Public Radio Program
"Fresh Air" had two editors from Jane's
Information Group talk about the "war on terrorism"
and the potential attack on Iraq. Reports from the various Jane's
journals concerning the world's weaponry are very widely
accepted as highly accurate and not biased by governmental or
political or ideological commitments. (Jane's is a subscription
supported institution--no access unless you ante up $730!)
We are indebted to Arthur Waskow of the Shalom Center (www.shalomctr.org
) for the following digest.
- Iraq does not have the ability to project a nuclear weapon
(if it had one) against its neighbors. Has residual biological
and chemical stocks (perhaps enhanced) from the Gulf War, very
few means to project them into the region. Difficult to use effectively.
Must have large artillery & huge stocks, especially of chemical
weapons. Could reach Israel from western Iraq, an obvious threat.
- No credible evidence of massive rebuilding of biological
and chemical facilities dismantled under UN inspection during
the '90s. Recent report suggesting that Saddam is six months
away from a nuclear weapon has been misrepresented by the Bush
administration. Report actually said that he was six months to
two years away before the Gulf War. Recent statement by International
Atomic Energy Agency report indicated that they do not believe
Saddam has any residual nuclear capability.
- International Institute for Strategic Studies (which Jane's
agrees with) report concluded that without outside help, Iraq
was years away from developing a nuclear weapon (see below).
- With help and with the delivery of some plutonium, a nuclear
weapon could be made in a matter of months. But that depends on
what you're talking about. If you mean a dirty bomb, then
an undergrad student in physics anywhere in the world would do,
with the right mix of knowledge, equipment, and materials. Designing
a nuclear missile to be delivered against a neighbor at some distance
is another story. No evidence Saddam Hussein is close to having
such a device.
- Prior to Gulf War was six months to two years away. But
the bulk of enriched plutonium and uranium had to be surrendered
as part of the UN regime which was imposed. International Atomic
Energy Agency (of the UN) does not believe that Iraq has any residual
nuclear capabilities.
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