March 2002

Views expressed are those of the authors, not necessarily of the AFSC.

Strategic Thinking for Peace Organizers in the Coming Year

Michael McConnell is the Director of the American Friends Service Committee's Great Lakes Regional Office. These remarks were delivered at a nationwide AFSC strategy meeting this January.

Good strategy means making informed choices. Since the future is uncertain, we will never have all of the information to make foolproof decisions. But there are ways of being more prepared for the future, whatever path it takes.

The following are three scenarios that try to describe possible future events. They are intended to be provocative and to anticipate the future rather than to predict it. None of the scenarios will become true, but parts of the various scenarios might well happen. Following each scenario are possible responses by the American Friends Service Committee and the peace movement in general.

The scenarios encompass the coming year and all assume that there will be an election in the United States in November, 2002. They do not assume that the votes will be counted accurately.

Scenario 1: It's the Economy, Stupid

No more violent attacks on the US occur, either on native soil or abroad where the US has interests. The "war on terrorism" takes a low profile without bombing or massive troop movements and Iraq, for now, is off of the radar screen. US covert military operations are happening in Somalia and Sudan, but there are no US casualties, and the nation seems to be heading back to its normal lack of interest in foreign affairs.

The bread-and-butter issues of unemployment and recession take the headlines as unemployment hits an official 7.5% and an unofficial 12%. In African American communities it stands at 25%, or at levels the same as the Great Depression. In major cities, robbery and murder rates increase and several high-profile police shootings of African American young people occur as security becomes the justification for ill-trained, rapidly deployed extra police protection.

Economic stimulus packages offered by Democrats and Republicans become the political debate of the election. Bush, courting Latino voters, follows his signing of the food stamps for legal immigrants law by trying to work out a plan with President Fox for a new guest worker program. Immigration regularization is back on the agenda, but in a weakened form. And even with the increased militarization of the Mexico-US border, there are increased crossings by Guatemalans and Nicaraguans, fleeing the starvation of their countries due to deflated coffee prices.

Argentina defaults further on its loans, the peso is in free fall, and rumors abound that banks like Citibank and FleetBoston, heavily invested in Argentina, are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. But Bush tells the American people not to worry because he will bail these banks out in order to save jobs for working people.

In response, AFSC joins with dozens of other organizations in April in the largest demonstration on US soil since before September 11. 30,000 people descend upon Washington DC and the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund. The action reinvigorates an anti-corporate globalization movement that has been in pause mode since September 11. Backed by polls that say that 80% of the US population believes that those who work should not be poor, they carry banners that say "Real Security is a Living Wage Job" and "Those Who Work Should Not Be Poor."

Meanwhile in eight cities with large Latino populations, AFSC has been documenting immigration abuses and organizing local rallies where 5,000-15,000 people, mostly Latinos, but joined by other immigrant groups, demand that President Bush move forward with a new legalization program. Thousands of signatures of immigrant voters are collected in crucial swing districts, many of them newly formed Latino districts based on the 2000 census. The petitions say that they will not forget come November, if there is no new broad legalization for those immigrants already here.

In October a broad coalition of community and religious groups lobbies in Washington and in legislative districts around the country to support a reauthorization of TANF that demands income support to low-wage workers, new public-financed jobs, and increased education and training opportunities. Under the banner "One Crisis, One People, One Safety Net," some of the largest community organizations throughout the country demonstrate to change welfare as we now know it.

Scenario 2: Operation Desert Justice

Another attack on the US occurs, this time at the US embassy in Paraguay. Even though it is not within the continental US, it reawakens the old fears. New evidence is "discovered" that links Iraq with both this attack and the al-Qaeda network. In late summer President Cheney initiates a full-scale mobilization of US land troops for an assault on Iraq called Operation Desert Justice, so that a major military operation is in full swing by the November election.

Bushcheneyrumsfeld believe that the error of the first President Bush is that he won the war too early before the election--a nation at war rallies around its commander in chief. War is their trump card and the Republicans lay it on the table just before the election. The war takes the headlines, captivates the nation and both parties pledge support for the President's decisive actions, while the economy, even though devastating for working people, takes a backseat to "Desert Justice."

With the massive troop call-ups, new anxiety rises among young people about a draft and the possibility of extensive US casualties.

US intervention in Iraq sets off a turmoil within the Middle East. The Pakistani people are outraged and anti-American demonstrations last for three weeks. Finally a border incident touches off fighting between India and Pakistan. Polls show that 35% of the US population worry that it will escalate into nuclear warfare while 55% are less concerned and feel that as long as it is "over there" it will not touch the US.

Symbolic Afghan refugee camp depicting Afghans displaced by war, freezing and dying in overcrowded camps, at weekly peace vigil in Copley Square, Boston organized by United for Justice with Peace Coalition; www.justicewithpeace.org. Photo: Tony Collins

In response, AFSC sponsors Peace and Justice Teams of 20 people to Iraq and to the Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan, and an all-women's group into Afghanistan itself, equipped with video cameras and video phones that can send images instantly via satellite. The purpose of their mission is to show the ongoing devastation of the last war, and the potential and ongoing human destruction of this new war. Images and testimonies of refugees, the children, and the conditions under which they are forced to live are captured. The real conditions of women within Afghanistan are documented, showing how war is particularly devastating to women.

AFSC sets up an Emergency Broadcasting Network. Video images are fed to the mainstream press but also sent out over the Internet. By October, AFSC's web sites have been moved to massive servers where they are getting four million hits per month. The hundreds of people who sign up to volunteer are sent out to help local organizers around the country. Locally, the new video images and testimonies of the human destruction of the wars translate into more local media coverage of our position. In a few cities, AFSC and others project those images on to the outside walls of prominent television networks as a symbolic way of demonstrating the media censorship of the civilian casualties.

Scenario 3: Covert Wars, Stealth Economy

The US sends Special Forces to Somalia, Sudan, and The Philippines. Unmanned aircraft and unmanned land vehicles play a prominent role in this new warfare. The warfare only produces four US casualties from enemy fire and no massive bombing campaigns are carried out. The US claims that bin Laden was killed in Afghanistan by Special Forces and the lieutenant who fired the shots that killed him becomes a national hero. Bush gains immense popularity from what looks like a successful military campaign against "terrorist" cells.

The Indonesian military pressures President Megawati into inviting the US military to assist in driving out "terrorist" forces in Indonesia. The military uses this pretext to arrest Muslims and dissidents and to further militarize the country.

Sudden outbreaks of smallpox in Boston and New Orleans, two port cities, raise new fears of US-based terrorist attacks and give the administration ample reason to maintain what is fast becoming its permanent expanded war machine. Bush gains Congressional approval for even more draconian search and seizures, and all airlines and dozens of communities win legal approval to use racial profiling as official policy. A wider dragnet is cast for Middle Eastern immigrants that snares African American citizens and Latino immigrants. More and more stories of people taken in the middle of the night circulate in our communities. The US now has a growing list of "disappeared."

Meanwhile, economists declare that the recession is over. Two successive quarters of GNP growth end in September, just before the election. The real truth is that while corporate profits and productivity are up, the jobs are not. Corporations have used the previous months to squeeze health benefits from workers, lay off temporary and other employees, and hold salaries to the previous year's levels.

In response, AFSC along with other communities of faith invoke the ancient law of sanctuary that says that innocent people fleeing injustice can find refuge within houses of worship. In Detroit, Chicago, and Los Angeles, cities with the some of the largest concentrations of Arabs, small clusters of churches, synagogues, and Quaker meetings take in a symbolic number of men on the list of 50,000 that the government has identified for questioning. The action makes front-page news and every major TV channel runs the initial press conferences because it is timely, bold, and shows the human face of the consequences of the new attack on civil liberties. At first the government reacts with silence but soon says that those harboring people to be questioned are aiding and abetting terrorism and can be charged and prosecuted under Section 802 of the USA Patriot Act. Instead of making AFSC and the others back down, new volunteers and offers of support flood our offices as people sign up to make sure there is a 24-hour watch at the sanctuaries.

In cities without publicly declared sanctuaries, AFSC organizes People's Tribunals where documentation of human rights abuses is handed over to legal, community, and religious leaders. This documentation includes immigration abuses, police brutality, evictions, shut-off of utilities, rapes, domestic violence, etc. as a number of community groups work together to show the devastation of the wars at home.

I present these scenarios not to predict the future so much as to heighten our ability to expect it. No one of these scenarios will come true, but parts of them probably will.

Strategic Questions

To think strategically means to make choices. What are the unique strengths of your group or organization that may set it apart from other groups? What strategy and tacitics will play to those strengths?

What openings do we see occurring in the next few months? Openings are opportunities. Sometimes negative situations can also be opportunities. For example, while the recession is bad for working people, it also provides an opening to discuss economic problems and offer alternatives.

What will motivate people in our communities to learn and act for social justice?

• Self-interest--this is what classic organizers look for in motivating people to act. Unemployed people are more interested in unemployment insurance, job training, and job creation than those who already have full-time employment. Self-interest is not selfishness. Every person has interests such as staying healthy, feeding their families, maintaining a safe neighborhood, etc. The role of organizers is to cut an issue in such a way that it fulfills the interests of their constituencies. What interests of the US population might the peace movement tap into, so that what brings peace, also fulfills those interests?
• Compassion--to be compassionate people must:

1. See the pain, and to see the pain they must be exposed to the reality of the casualties of war. Bush and his administration have already shown us what is threatening to them by keeping civilian deaths out of the media and bombing the Al-Jazeera television station in Afghanistan.
2. Understand that the pain was not the fault of those suffering--this will require a clear political and economic analysis of the roots of the Afghan war.
3. Feel that this pain could happen to them--this is the question of empathy. Can people cross race, class, and religious lines in order to identify with the Afghanistan refugees? What can we do to make that identification more real?

What are the chinks in the armor of our adversaries? What are the weaknesses that our adversaries exhibit? The Bush administration has already shown us what is one weakness of their military approach--civilian casualties. They have gone to great lengths to keep the media from reporting on civilian deaths. They bombed the al-Jazeera television station in Afghanistan, the one source of images of civilian deaths sent daily to the Middle East and Europe. Polls also have shown that the US population's support for war decreases as civilian and US military casualties rise.

How can we tap the attitudes and beliefs of the US population? To take one example, polls have shown that the American people are much more generous than the government tends to be. When asked how much in foreign aid the government gives, people usually respond ten percent, which they believe is adequate. In actuality, the government gives only one-tenth of one percent in foreign aid. The generosity of the US population is a generally untapped resource, if the human face of war can be shown.

What leverage points can we find so that the minimum of effort provides the maximum of movement? Archimedes said that with a lever long enough and a fulcrum point correctly placed, he could move the world. We are up against a war machine that spends a million dollars every two minutes, solely on the war in Afghanistan. Money will never be a lever against that type of wealth. But people, organized and in motion, can be a force if well placed. Where are those leverage points where a smaller force can move a larger one?

How do we incorporate ongoing leadership development and constituency-building into our strategies? No movement can exist for long without new leaders and an ever-growing constituency. The intentional act of leadership development helps those who are new gain confidence and insights and build on the past knowledge of peace and justice movements. Leadership involves spiritual depth, long-term commitment, clear analysis, risk, and strategic decision-making. Finding ways to build that type of conscious development into our activities is crucial to the future of grassroots people's movements.

Light it Up

An old religious proverb admonishes that we should light one candle rather than curse the darkness. Saul Alinsky said that lighting a candle was fine, but why not put it under a certain part of the anatomy where it may cause the most reaction. But there is another image. Light the candle but join with others. How many candles does it take to make a torch? How many torches does it take to make a bonfire? And how many bonfires will it take to cause a prairie fire--a movement of people so filled with light that those in power will also feel the heat?

Previous Article    Next Article